Examining the oldest-old mortality in the U.S. A forecast reconciliation approach

Han Li

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference proceeding contribution


Understanding the heterogeneity in regional-level mortality experience is of fundamental importance. This paper analyzes the state-level mortality rates for 50 U.S. states as well as the District of Columbia at age 80 and above via a novel forecast reconciliation approach. Based on mortality data from 1990–2017, we project the 10-year-ahead mortality rates at national and state levels up to 2027. We find that the geographical heterogeneity in the old-age mortality experience is likely to continue and the mortality improvement rates will to slow in the next decade.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2020 Living to 100 Symposium Essays
Place of PublicationLake Buena Vista
PublisherSociety of Actuaries
Number of pages14
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2020
Event2020 Living to 100 Symposium - Lake Buena Vista, United States
Duration: 13 Jan 202015 Jan 2020


Conference2020 Living to 100 Symposium
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityLake Buena Vista


Dive into the research topics of 'Examining the oldest-old mortality in the U.S. A forecast reconciliation approach'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this