Expert judgment and uncertainty in sociotechnical systems analysis

Esmaeil Zarei, Mohammad Yazdi*, Rosita Moradi, Ahmad BahooToroody

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterpeer-review

Abstract

The chapter navigates the complicated landscape of incorporating expert insights within the framework of sociotechnical systems. It talks about the pivotal role of expert judgment in unravelling the complexities inherent in these systems and addresses the challenges posed by uncertainties. It also provides an overview of the multifaceted methodologies employed in integrating expert knowledge, encompassing structured expert elicitation techniques, uncertainty quantification models, and the collaborative dynamics of expert panels. Furthermore, it explores the mathematical foundations of Bayesian approaches and fuzzy logic applications, elucidating how these methodologies contribute to a probabilistic assessment and representation of uncertainties. The chapter underscores the importance of addressing challenges such as identifying sources of uncertainty, ethical considerations, and the need for continuous learning in sociotechnical systems analysis. Through a comprehensive exploration of methodologies, real-world applications, and concerns, this chapter aims to contribute to the evolving landscape of expertise in sociotechnical systems, offering insights and implications for both research and practical applications.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSafety causation analysis in sociotechnical systems
Subtitle of host publicationadvanced models and techniques
EditorsEsmaeil Zarei
Place of PublicationCham
PublisherSpringer, Springer Nature
Chapter18
Pages487-530
Number of pages44
ISBN (Electronic)9783031624704
ISBN (Print)9783031624698, 9783031624728
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024

Publication series

NameStudies in Systems, Decision and Control
PublisherSpringer
Volume541
ISSN (Print)2198-4182
ISSN (Electronic)2198-4190

Keywords

  • Expert judgment
  • Uncertainty
  • Sociotechnical systems
  • Bayesian approaches
  • Fuzzy logic
  • Risk assessment
  • Human factors
  • Decision-making
  • Interdisciplinary insights

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