Exploratory study of 6-month pain trajectories in individuals with predominant patellofemoral osteoarthritis: a cohort study

Background: Knowledge of patellofemoral osteoarthritis (OA) pain trajectories is vital to helping clinicians and patients make shared disease-specific decisions regarding treatment options and coping strategies. Objectives: To describe the pain trajectories of people living with patellofemoral OA who present to a chronic care management program, and to explore baseline characteristics associated with different trajectories. Methods: In this prospective longitudinal cohort study, 88 participants who presented to a chronic care management program reported their worst pain over the previous week at baseline and at 6, 12, 18, and 26 weeks using a 10-cm visual analog scale. Trajectories (classes) were identified using latent class growth analysis. Demographics, pain, physical performance, strength, quality of life, mental health, and lower limb/foot structural measures obtained at baseline were assessed for association with trajectory class membership. Results: Individuals in class 1 (28%) exhibited high, persistent pain from baseline (7.8 ± 1.7 cm), which continued over time (P = .52). Class 2 (57%) displayed moderate baseline pain (4.8 ± 1.8 cm), which also remained persistent (P = .97). Individuals in class 3 (15%) showed low, improving pain (baseline pain, 2.6 ± 1.2 cm) over time (P = .017). At baseline, poor Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) scores, local and proximal sensitivity to pressure, and lower knee extensor strength were associated with increased odds of following the high-pain trajectory (range [95% confidence interval], 1.03 [1.00, 1.07] to 16.24 [2.53, 104.34]). Conclusion: Distinct pain trajectories appear to exist in people with patellofemoral OA presenting to a chronic care management program. Baseline variables may be useful for identifying individuals at risk of poorer prognosis. Larger studies are needed to confirm the efficacy of this finding.