Extinction risk from climate change

Chris D. Thomas; Alison Cameron; Rhys E. Green; Michel Bakkenes; Linda J. Beaumont; Yvonne C. Collingham; Barend F N Erasmus; Marinez Ferreira De Siqueira; Alan Grainger; Lee Hannah; Lesley Hughes; Brian Huntley; Albert S. Van Jaarsveld; Guy F. Midgley; Lera Miles; Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta; A. Townsend Peterson; Oliver L. Phillips; Stephen E. Williams

doi:10.1038/nature02121

Extinction risk from climate change

Chris D. Thomas^*, Alison Cameron, Rhys E. Green, Michel Bakkenes, Linda J. Beaumont, Yvonne C. Collingham, Barend F N Erasmus, Marinez Ferreira De Siqueira, Alan Grainger, Lee Hannah, Lesley Hughes, Brian Huntley, Albert S. Van Jaarsveld, Guy F. Midgley, Lera Miles, Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta, A. Townsend Peterson, Oliver L. Phillips, Stephen E. Williams

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

4614 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	145-148
Number of pages	4
Journal	Nature
Volume	427
Issue number	6970
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02121
Publication status	Published - 8 Jan 2004

Access to Document

10.1038/nature02121

Link to publication in Scopus

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Extinction risk from climate change'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this

Thomas, C. D., Cameron, A., Green, R. E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L. J., Collingham, Y. C., Erasmus, B. F. N., Ferreira De Siqueira, M., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., Van Jaarsveld, A. S., Midgley, G. F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M. A., Peterson, A. T., Phillips, O. L., & Williams, S. E. (2004). Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427(6970), 145-148. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02121

Thomas, Chris D. ; Cameron, Alison ; Green, Rhys E. ; Bakkenes, Michel ; Beaumont, Linda J. ; Collingham, Yvonne C. ; Erasmus, Barend F N ; Ferreira De Siqueira, Marinez ; Grainger, Alan ; Hannah, Lee ; Hughes, Lesley ; Huntley, Brian ; Van Jaarsveld, Albert S. ; Midgley, Guy F. ; Miles, Lera ; Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A. ; Peterson, A. Townsend ; Phillips, Oliver L. ; Williams, Stephen E. / Extinction risk from climate change. In: Nature. 2004 ; Vol. 427, No. 6970. pp. 145-148.

@article{ce7e8f0f476e4ed4be508c9c8abf9b51,

title = "Extinction risk from climate change",

abstract = "Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.",

author = "Thomas, {Chris D.} and Alison Cameron and Green, {Rhys E.} and Michel Bakkenes and Beaumont, {Linda J.} and Collingham, {Yvonne C.} and Erasmus, {Barend F N} and {Ferreira De Siqueira}, Marinez and Alan Grainger and Lee Hannah and Lesley Hughes and Brian Huntley and {Van Jaarsveld}, {Albert S.} and Midgley, {Guy F.} and Lera Miles and Ortega-Huerta, {Miguel A.} and Peterson, {A. Townsend} and Phillips, {Oliver L.} and Williams, {Stephen E.}",

year = "2004",

month = jan,

day = "8",

doi = "10.1038/nature02121",

language = "English",

volume = "427",

pages = "145--148",

journal = "Nature",

issn = "1476-4687",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Groups",

number = "6970",

}

Thomas, CD, Cameron, A, Green, RE, Bakkenes, M, Beaumont, LJ, Collingham, YC, Erasmus, BFN, Ferreira De Siqueira, M, Grainger, A, Hannah, L, Hughes, L, Huntley, B, Van Jaarsveld, AS, Midgley, GF, Miles, L, Ortega-Huerta, MA, Peterson, AT, Phillips, OL & Williams, SE 2004, 'Extinction risk from climate change', Nature, vol. 427, no. 6970, pp. 145-148. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02121

Extinction risk from climate change. / Thomas, Chris D.; Cameron, Alison; Green, Rhys E.; Bakkenes, Michel; Beaumont, Linda J.; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Erasmus, Barend F N; Ferreira De Siqueira, Marinez; Grainger, Alan; Hannah, Lee; Hughes, Lesley; Huntley, Brian; Van Jaarsveld, Albert S.; Midgley, Guy F.; Miles, Lera; Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Phillips, Oliver L.; Williams, Stephen E.

In: Nature, Vol. 427, No. 6970, 08.01.2004, p. 145-148.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Extinction risk from climate change

AU - Thomas, Chris D.

AU - Cameron, Alison

AU - Green, Rhys E.

AU - Bakkenes, Michel

AU - Beaumont, Linda J.

AU - Collingham, Yvonne C.

AU - Erasmus, Barend F N

AU - Ferreira De Siqueira, Marinez

AU - Grainger, Alan

AU - Hannah, Lee

AU - Hughes, Lesley

AU - Huntley, Brian

AU - Van Jaarsveld, Albert S.

AU - Midgley, Guy F.

AU - Miles, Lera

AU - Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A.

AU - Peterson, A. Townsend

AU - Phillips, Oliver L.

AU - Williams, Stephen E.

PY - 2004/1/8

Y1 - 2004/1/8

N2 - Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

AB - Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=1542329839&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/nature02121

DO - 10.1038/nature02121

M3 - Article

C2 - 14712274

AN - SCOPUS:1542329839

VL - 427

SP - 145

EP - 148

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

SN - 1476-4687

IS - 6970

ER -