TY - JOUR
T1 - Extinction risk from climate change
AU - Thomas, Chris D.
AU - Cameron, Alison
AU - Green, Rhys E.
AU - Bakkenes, Michel
AU - Beaumont, Linda J.
AU - Collingham, Yvonne C.
AU - Erasmus, Barend F N
AU - Ferreira De Siqueira, Marinez
AU - Grainger, Alan
AU - Hannah, Lee
AU - Hughes, Lesley
AU - Huntley, Brian
AU - Van Jaarsveld, Albert S.
AU - Midgley, Guy F.
AU - Miles, Lera
AU - Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A.
AU - Peterson, A. Townsend
AU - Phillips, Oliver L.
AU - Williams, Stephen E.
PY - 2004/1/8
Y1 - 2004/1/8
N2 - Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
AB - Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=1542329839&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/nature02121
DO - 10.1038/nature02121
M3 - Article
C2 - 14712274
AN - SCOPUS:1542329839
VL - 427
SP - 145
EP - 148
JO - Nature
JF - Nature
SN - 1476-4687
IS - 6970
ER -