Extinction risk from climate change

Chris D. Thomas; Alison Cameron; Rhys E. Green; Michel Bakkenes; Linda J. Beaumont; Yvonne C. Collingham; Barend F N Erasmus; Marinez Ferreira De Siqueira; Alan Grainger; Lee Hannah; Lesley Hughes; Brian Huntley; Albert S. Van Jaarsveld; Guy F. Midgley; Lera Miles; Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta; A. Townsend Peterson; Oliver L. Phillips; Stephen E. Williams

doi:10.1038/nature02121

Extinction risk from climate change

Chris D. Thomas^*, Alison Cameron, Rhys E. Green, Michel Bakkenes, Linda J. Beaumont, Yvonne C. Collingham, Barend F N Erasmus, Marinez Ferreira De Siqueira, Alan Grainger, Lee Hannah, Lesley Hughes, Brian Huntley, Albert S. Van Jaarsveld, Guy F. Midgley, Lera Miles, Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta, A. Townsend Peterson, Oliver L. Phillips, Stephen E. Williams

^*Corresponding author for this work

Faculty of Science and Engineering

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

6010 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	145-148
Number of pages	4
Journal	Nature
Volume	427
Issue number	6970
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02121
Publication status	Published - 8 Jan 2004

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Thomas, C. D., Cameron, A., Green, R. E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L. J., Collingham, Y. C., Erasmus, B. F. N., Ferreira De Siqueira, M., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., Van Jaarsveld, A. S., Midgley, G. F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M. A., Peterson, A. T., Phillips, O. L., & Williams, S. E. (2004). Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427(6970), 145-148. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02121

@article{ce7e8f0f476e4ed4be508c9c8abf9b51,

title = "Extinction risk from climate change",

abstract = "Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.",

author = "Thomas, {Chris D.} and Alison Cameron and Green, {Rhys E.} and Michel Bakkenes and Beaumont, {Linda J.} and Collingham, {Yvonne C.} and Erasmus, {Barend F N} and {Ferreira De Siqueira}, Marinez and Alan Grainger and Lee Hannah and Lesley Hughes and Brian Huntley and {Van Jaarsveld}, {Albert S.} and Midgley, {Guy F.} and Lera Miles and Ortega-Huerta, {Miguel A.} and Peterson, {A. Townsend} and Phillips, {Oliver L.} and Williams, {Stephen E.}",

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language = "English",

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Thomas, CD, Cameron, A, Green, RE, Bakkenes, M, Beaumont, LJ, Collingham, YC, Erasmus, BFN, Ferreira De Siqueira, M, Grainger, A, Hannah, L, Hughes, L, Huntley, B, Van Jaarsveld, AS, Midgley, GF, Miles, L, Ortega-Huerta, MA, Peterson, AT, Phillips, OL & Williams, SE 2004, 'Extinction risk from climate change', Nature, vol. 427, no. 6970, pp. 145-148. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02121

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AU - Thomas, Chris D.

AU - Cameron, Alison

AU - Green, Rhys E.

AU - Bakkenes, Michel

AU - Beaumont, Linda J.

AU - Collingham, Yvonne C.

AU - Erasmus, Barend F N

AU - Ferreira De Siqueira, Marinez

AU - Grainger, Alan

AU - Hannah, Lee

AU - Hughes, Lesley

AU - Huntley, Brian

AU - Van Jaarsveld, Albert S.

AU - Midgley, Guy F.

AU - Miles, Lera

AU - Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A.

AU - Peterson, A. Townsend

AU - Phillips, Oliver L.

AU - Williams, Stephen E.

PY - 2004/1/8

Y1 - 2004/1/8

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AB - Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

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Extinction risk from climate change

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