Forecasting Australian subnational age-specific mortality rates

Han Lin Shang, Yang Yang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the forecasts at the national level. In this study, we apply a grouped multivariate functional time series to forecast Australian regional and remote age-specific mortality rates and reconcile forecasts in a group structure using various methods. Our proposed method compares favorably to a grouped univariate functional time series forecasting method by comparing one-step-ahead to five-step-ahead point forecast accuracy. Thus, we demonstrate that joint modeling of sub-populations with similar mortality patterns can improve point forecast accuracy.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-24
Number of pages24
JournalJournal of Population Research
Volume38
Issue number1
Early online date9 Nov 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2021

Keywords

  • Australian regional mortality rates
  • Forecast reconciliation
  • Hierarchical/grouped time series
  • Multivariate functional principal component analysis

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