Forecasting Demand for Australian Passports

Roselyne Joyeux*, George Milunovich, John Rigg

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We forecast demand for Australian passports using a number of univariate and multivariate forecasting models, and assess their relative predictive ability over a number of forecasting horizons and evaluation measures. Our key result is to use different forecasting models for predicting passport demand in the short- versus medium- to long-run. Specifically, to forecast Adult-and-Senior passport demand in the short-term (i.e. up to 12 months) univariate ARIMA models are preferred, while for the longer term forecasts multivariate models with exogenous variables outperform, although only marginally. To forecast passport demand for Minors (less than 18 years old) ARIMA models perform well both in the short-term and the long-term, although ARIMA with explanatory variables outperforms slightly.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)100-119
Number of pages20
JournalAsia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research
Volume17
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2012

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