Forecasting Brassica napus production under climate change with a mechanistic species distribution model

Claudia Eduarda Borges, Ronnie Von dos Santos Veloso, Crislaine Alves da Conceicao, Debora Sampaio Mendes, Nadiezhda Y. Z. Ramirez-Cabral, Farzin Shabani*, Mahyat Shafapourtehrany, Marcela Carlota Nery, Ricardo Siqueira da Silva

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)
35 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Brassica napus, a versatile crop with significant socioeconomic importance, serves as a valuable source of nutrition for humans and animals while also being utilized in biodiesel production. The expansion potential of B. napus is profoundly influenced by climatic variations, yet there remains a scarcity of studies investigating the correlation between climatic factors and its distribution. This research employs CLIMEX to identify the current and future ecological niches of B. napus under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, utilizing the Access 1.0 and CNRM-CM5 models for the time frame of 2040-2059. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of parameters was conducted to determine the primary climatic factors affecting B. napus distribution and model responsiveness. The simulated outcomes demonstrate a satisfactory alignment with the known current distribution of B. napus, with 98% of occurrence records classified as having medium to high climatic suitability. However, the species displays high sensitivity to thermal parameters, thereby suggesting that temperature increases could trigger shifts in suitable and unsuitable areas for B. napus, impacting regions such as Canada, China, Brazil, and the United States.

Original languageEnglish
Article number12656
Pages (from-to)1-15
Number of pages15
JournalScientific Reports
Volume13
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 Aug 2023
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Copyright the Author(s) 2023. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

Keywords

  • HEAT-STRESS
  • TEMPERATURE
  • RAPESEED
  • GROWTH
  • WINTER
  • L.
  • RESPONSES
  • IMPROVE
  • WATER

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