Forecasting the efficiency of weft knitting production: a decision tree method

Purpose - This paper aims to develop a decision support system for predicting the knitting production’s efficiency based on the input parameters of an order. This tool supports the operations managers to make reliable decisions of estimated delivery time, which will result in reducing waste arising from late delivery, overtime and increased labor.

Design/methodology/approach - The decision tree method with a set of logical IF-THEN rules is used to determine the knitting production’s efficiency. Each path of the decision tree represents a rule of the following form: “IF <Condition> THEN <Efficiency label>.” Starting with identifying and categorizing input specifications, the model is then applied to the observed data to regenerate the results of efficiency into classification instances.

Findings - The production’s efficiency is the result of the interaction between input specifications such as yarn’s component, knitting fabric specifications and machine speed. The rule base is generated through a decision tree built to classify the efficiency into five levels, including very low, low, medium, high and very high. Based on this, production managers can determine the delivery time and schedule the manufacturing planning more accurately. In this research, the correct classification instances, which is simply a ratio of the correctly predicted observations to the total ones, reach 80.17%.

Originality/Values - This research proposes a new methodology for estimating the efficiency of weft knitting production based on a decision tree method with an application of real data. This model supports the decision-making process of the estimated delivery time.