Forecasting: theory and practice

Fotios Petropoulos; Daniele Apiletti; Vassilios Assimakopoulos; Mohamed Zied Babai; Devon K. Barrow; Souhaib Ben Taieb; Christoph Bergmeir; Ricardo J. Bessa; Jakub Bijak; John E. Boylan; Jethro Browell; Claudio Carnevale; Jennifer Castle; Pasquale Cirillo; Michael P. Clements; Clara Cordeiro; Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira; Shari De Baets; Alexander Dokumentov; Joanne Ellison; Piotr Fiszeder; Philip Hans Franses; David T. Frazier; Michael Gilliland; M. Sinan Gönül; Paul Goodwin; Luigi Grossi; Yael Grushka-Cockayne; Mariangela Guidolin; Massimo Guidolin; Ulrich Gunter; Xiaojia Guo; Renato Guess; Nigel Harvey; David F. Hendry; Ross Hollyman; Tim Januschowski; Jooyoung Jeon; Victor Richmond R. Jose; Yanfei Kang; Anne B. Koehler; Stephan Kolassa; Nikolaos Kourentzes; Sonia Leva; Feng Li; Konstantia Litsiou; Spyros Makridakis; Gael M. Martin; Andrew B. Martinez; Sheik Meeran; Theodore Modis; Konstantinos Nikolopoulos; Dilek Önkal; Alessia Paccagnini; Anastasios Panagiotelis; Ioannis Panapakidis; Jose M. Pavía; Manuela Pedio; Diego J. Pedregal; Pierre Pinson; Patrícia Ramos; David E. Rapach; J. James Reade; Bahman Rostami-Tabar; Michał Rubaszek; Georgios Sermpinis; Han Lin Shang; Evangelos Spiliotis; Aris A. Syntetos; Priyanga Dilini Talagala; Thiyanga S. Talagala; Len Tashman; Dimitrios Thomakos; Thordis Thorarinsdottir; Ezio Todini; Juan Ramón Trapero Arenas; Xiaoqian Wang; Robert L. Winkler; Alisa Yusupova; Florian Ziel

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001

Forecasting: theory and practice

Fotios Petropoulos^*, Daniele Apiletti, Vassilios Assimakopoulos, Mohamed Zied Babai, Devon K. Barrow, Souhaib Ben Taieb, Christoph Bergmeir, Ricardo J. Bessa, Jakub Bijak, John E. Boylan, Jethro Browell, Claudio Carnevale, Jennifer Castle, Pasquale Cirillo, Michael P. Clements, Clara Cordeiro, Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira, Shari De Baets, Alexander Dokumentov, Joanne EllisonPiotr Fiszeder, Philip Hans Franses, David T. Frazier, Michael Gilliland, M. Sinan Gönül, Paul Goodwin, Luigi Grossi, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Mariangela Guidolin, Massimo Guidolin, Ulrich Gunter, Xiaojia Guo, Renato Guess, Nigel Harvey, David F. Hendry, Ross Hollyman, Tim Januschowski, Jooyoung Jeon, Victor Richmond R. Jose, Yanfei Kang, Anne B. Koehler, Stephan Kolassa, Nikolaos Kourentzes, Sonia Leva, Feng Li, Konstantia Litsiou, Spyros Makridakis, Gael M. Martin, Andrew B. Martinez, Sheik Meeran, Theodore Modis, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Dilek Önkal, Alessia Paccagnini, Anastasios Panagiotelis, Ioannis Panapakidis, Jose M. Pavía, Manuela Pedio, Diego J. Pedregal, Pierre Pinson, Patrícia Ramos, David E. Rapach, J. James Reade, Bahman Rostami-Tabar, Michał Rubaszek, Georgios Sermpinis, Han Lin Shang, Evangelos Spiliotis, Aris A. Syntetos, Priyanga Dilini Talagala, Thiyanga S. Talagala, Len Tashman, Dimitrios Thomakos, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Ezio Todini, Juan Ramón Trapero Arenas, Xiaoqian Wang, Robert L. Winkler, Alisa Yusupova, Florian Ziel

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Actuarial Studies and Business Analytics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

490 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts.

We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	705-871
Number of pages	167
Journal	International Journal of Forecasting
Volume	38
Issue number	3
Early online date	20 Jan 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001
Publication status	Published - Jul 2022

Bibliographical note

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

Keywords

Applications
Encyclopedia
Methods
Prediction
Principles
Review
Time series

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10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001Licence: CC BY

Publisher version (open access)Final published version, 3.81 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

Petropoulos, F., Apiletti, D., Assimakopoulos, V., Babai, M. Z., Barrow, D. K., Ben Taieb, S., Bergmeir, C., Bessa, R. J., Bijak, J., Boylan, J. E., Browell, J., Carnevale, C., Castle, J., Cirillo, P., Clements, M. P., Cordeiro, C., Cyrino Oliveira, F. L., De Baets, S., Dokumentov, A., ... Ziel, F. (2022). Forecasting: theory and practice. International Journal of Forecasting, 38(3), 705-871. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001

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abstract = "Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts.We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.",

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note = "Copyright {\textcopyright} 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.",

year = "2022",

month = jul,

doi = "10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001",

language = "English",

volume = "38",

pages = "705--871",

journal = "International Journal of Forecasting",

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number = "3",

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Petropoulos, F, Apiletti, D, Assimakopoulos, V, Babai, MZ, Barrow, DK, Ben Taieb, S, Bergmeir, C, Bessa, RJ, Bijak, J, Boylan, JE, Browell, J, Carnevale, C, Castle, J, Cirillo, P, Clements, MP, Cordeiro, C, Cyrino Oliveira, FL, De Baets, S, Dokumentov, A, Ellison, J, Fiszeder, P, Franses, PH, Frazier, DT, Gilliland, M, Gönül, MS, Goodwin, P, Grossi, L, Grushka-Cockayne, Y, Guidolin, M, Guidolin, M, Gunter, U, Guo, X, Guess, R, Harvey, N, Hendry, DF, Hollyman, R, Januschowski, T, Jeon, J, Jose, VRR, Kang, Y, Koehler, AB, Kolassa, S, Kourentzes, N, Leva, S, Li, F, Litsiou, K, Makridakis, S, Martin, GM, Martinez, AB, Meeran, S, Modis, T, Nikolopoulos, K, Önkal, D, Paccagnini, A, Panagiotelis, A, Panapakidis, I, Pavía, JM, Pedio, M, Pedregal, DJ, Pinson, P, Ramos, P, Rapach, DE, Reade, JJ, Rostami-Tabar, B, Rubaszek, M, Sermpinis, G, Shang, HL, Spiliotis, E, Syntetos, AA, Talagala, PD, Talagala, TS, Tashman, L, Thomakos, D, Thorarinsdottir, T, Todini, E, Trapero Arenas, JR, Wang, X, Winkler, RL, Yusupova, A & Ziel, F 2022, 'Forecasting: theory and practice', International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 38, no. 3, pp. 705-871. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001

TY - JOUR

T1 - Forecasting

T2 - theory and practice

AU - Petropoulos, Fotios

AU - Apiletti, Daniele

AU - Assimakopoulos, Vassilios

AU - Babai, Mohamed Zied

AU - Barrow, Devon K.

AU - Ben Taieb, Souhaib

AU - Bergmeir, Christoph

AU - Bessa, Ricardo J.

AU - Bijak, Jakub

AU - Boylan, John E.

AU - Browell, Jethro

AU - Carnevale, Claudio

AU - Castle, Jennifer

AU - Cirillo, Pasquale

AU - Clements, Michael P.

AU - Cordeiro, Clara

AU - Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz

AU - De Baets, Shari

AU - Dokumentov, Alexander

AU - Ellison, Joanne

AU - Fiszeder, Piotr

AU - Franses, Philip Hans

AU - Frazier, David T.

AU - Gilliland, Michael

AU - Gönül, M. Sinan

AU - Goodwin, Paul

AU - Grossi, Luigi

AU - Grushka-Cockayne, Yael

AU - Guidolin, Mariangela

AU - Guidolin, Massimo

AU - Gunter, Ulrich

AU - Guo, Xiaojia

AU - Guess, Renato

AU - Harvey, Nigel

AU - Hendry, David F.

AU - Hollyman, Ross

AU - Januschowski, Tim

AU - Jeon, Jooyoung

AU - Jose, Victor Richmond R.

AU - Kang, Yanfei

AU - Koehler, Anne B.

AU - Kolassa, Stephan

AU - Kourentzes, Nikolaos

AU - Leva, Sonia

AU - Li, Feng

AU - Litsiou, Konstantia

AU - Makridakis, Spyros

AU - Martin, Gael M.

AU - Martinez, Andrew B.

AU - Meeran, Sheik

AU - Modis, Theodore

AU - Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos

AU - Önkal, Dilek

AU - Paccagnini, Alessia

AU - Panagiotelis, Anastasios

AU - Panapakidis, Ioannis

AU - Pavía, Jose M.

AU - Pedio, Manuela

AU - Pedregal, Diego J.

AU - Pinson, Pierre

AU - Ramos, Patrícia

AU - Rapach, David E.

AU - Reade, J. James

AU - Rostami-Tabar, Bahman

AU - Rubaszek, Michał

AU - Sermpinis, Georgios

AU - Shang, Han Lin

AU - Spiliotis, Evangelos

AU - Syntetos, Aris A.

AU - Talagala, Priyanga Dilini

AU - Talagala, Thiyanga S.

AU - Tashman, Len

AU - Thomakos, Dimitrios

AU - Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

AU - Todini, Ezio

AU - Trapero Arenas, Juan Ramón

AU - Wang, Xiaoqian

AU - Winkler, Robert L.

AU - Yusupova, Alisa

AU - Ziel, Florian

N1 - Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

PY - 2022/7

Y1 - 2022/7

N2 - Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts.We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

AB - Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts.We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

KW - Applications

KW - Encyclopedia

KW - Methods

KW - Prediction

KW - Principles

KW - Review

KW - Time series

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85123082516&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001

DO - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001

M3 - Review article

SN - 0169-2070

VL - 38

SP - 705

EP - 871

JO - International Journal of Forecasting

JF - International Journal of Forecasting

IS - 3

ER -

Forecasting: theory and practice

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