From energy deprivation to decarbonization constraints: a global typology of residential energy use

Despite progress on energy access, large populations still lack basic residential energy services, often in countries with low historical emissions but high climate exposure. Using harmonized panel data for 186 countries (1990–2023), we document global disparities in residential energy use and relate them to income and electricity access. Annual residential energy consumption varies by nearly seventyfold—from below 0.15 MWh per capita in parts of sub-Saharan Africa to above 10 MWh in North America and Scandinavia—around a global median of 2.32 MWh. Consumption rises with income but flattens near $70,000 GDP per capita (2015 USD), consistent with Engel-curve saturation once basic needs are met. We identify a “near-median belt” of emerging economies (e.g., Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia) with substantial scope for demand growth, while much of sub-Saharan Africa remains in a deep-deficit regime below 0.6 MWh per capita. Small income or tariff shifts could move hundreds of millions across demand regimes, a pattern not well captured in standard energy–climate modeling. These thresholds imply differentiated policy priorities: expanding supply and clean cooking in deep-deficit settings, targeted efficiency in saturated systems, and locally grounded affordability safeguards where risks are uncertain. Embedding minimum energy thresholds into climate finance would better align vulnerability assessments with energy deprivation.