From i-phone 3G to i-phone 4G: A two-stage complex systems model of the two stage diffusion process

Steven D'Alessandro*, Hume Winzar

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We present a conceptual model where agents are prompted to adopt a new technology through a two-step process: information from neighbours prompts an upgrade, and the option purchased may be influenced by the one demonstrated by the neighbour. In a network world with two options available we systematically manipulate (1) the initial number of neighbours with white compared to black, (2) rate of naturally-occurring upgrade, (3) chance of upgrade prompted by a neighbour using white relative to black, and (4) the relative chance of choosing white instead of black having decided to upgrade. Not surprisingly, adoption speed is influenced by starting users, natural upgrade, and relative upgrade chance. Market share, on the other hand, is influenced only by the relative chance of choosing white over black, with no influence at all from the other predictors. We find that this result applies regardless of the type or complexity of network.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)69-72
Number of pages4
JournalAustralasian Marketing Journal
Volume22
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2014

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