FSEM: an approach to model contribution of synergistic effect of fires for domino effects

Long Ding , Faisal Khan, Rouzbeh Abbassi, Jie Ji

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Fires are major primary events in domino effects in chemical and process industries, and released thermal radiation is a main cause of accident propagation. In fire-induced domino effects, synergistic effect of multiple burning units will increase risk of domino effects, and the synergistic effect is time-dependent. In this study, a superimposition based new approach is proposed to model the contribution of synergistic effect of fires for domino effects, and a numerical solution of the approach is developed. In this approach, the synergistic effect of fires is modeled dynamically through time-variant target unit wall temperature and received thermal flux, and the receivable thermal dose is proposed as failure criterion and is modeled. The contributions of synergistic effect on the risk of domino effects are assessed by time to failure and escalation probability of target unit. The proposed approach is able to not only model the synergistic effect of fires, but also to understand the temporal evolution of synergistic effect when higher-level accidents occur. A case study demonstrates the effectiveness, advantages, extension of the proposed approach to model the contribution of synergistic effect for domino effects risk.
LanguageEnglish
Pages271-278
Number of pages8
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume189
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2019

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Fires
Accidents
Heat radiation
Fluxes
Industry
Temperature
Hot Temperature

Keywords

  • Domino effect
  • Synergistic effect
  • Contribution
  • Failure criterion

Cite this

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title = "FSEM: an approach to model contribution of synergistic effect of fires for domino effects",
abstract = "Fires are major primary events in domino effects in chemical and process industries, and released thermal radiation is a main cause of accident propagation. In fire-induced domino effects, synergistic effect of multiple burning units will increase risk of domino effects, and the synergistic effect is time-dependent. In this study, a superimposition based new approach is proposed to model the contribution of synergistic effect of fires for domino effects, and a numerical solution of the approach is developed. In this approach, the synergistic effect of fires is modeled dynamically through time-variant target unit wall temperature and received thermal flux, and the receivable thermal dose is proposed as failure criterion and is modeled. The contributions of synergistic effect on the risk of domino effects are assessed by time to failure and escalation probability of target unit. The proposed approach is able to not only model the synergistic effect of fires, but also to understand the temporal evolution of synergistic effect when higher-level accidents occur. A case study demonstrates the effectiveness, advantages, extension of the proposed approach to model the contribution of synergistic effect for domino effects risk.",
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FSEM : an approach to model contribution of synergistic effect of fires for domino effects. / Ding , Long ; Khan, Faisal; Abbassi, Rouzbeh; Ji , Jie.

In: Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 189, 09.2019, p. 271-278.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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T2 - Reliability Engineering and System Safety

AU - Ding , Long

AU - Khan, Faisal

AU - Abbassi, Rouzbeh

AU - Ji , Jie

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AB - Fires are major primary events in domino effects in chemical and process industries, and released thermal radiation is a main cause of accident propagation. In fire-induced domino effects, synergistic effect of multiple burning units will increase risk of domino effects, and the synergistic effect is time-dependent. In this study, a superimposition based new approach is proposed to model the contribution of synergistic effect of fires for domino effects, and a numerical solution of the approach is developed. In this approach, the synergistic effect of fires is modeled dynamically through time-variant target unit wall temperature and received thermal flux, and the receivable thermal dose is proposed as failure criterion and is modeled. The contributions of synergistic effect on the risk of domino effects are assessed by time to failure and escalation probability of target unit. The proposed approach is able to not only model the synergistic effect of fires, but also to understand the temporal evolution of synergistic effect when higher-level accidents occur. A case study demonstrates the effectiveness, advantages, extension of the proposed approach to model the contribution of synergistic effect for domino effects risk.

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