Global risks of Bedellia somnulentella (Lepidoptera: Bedelliidae) invasion: a modeling exercise using a mechanistic model, CLIMEX

Marinalva Martins dos Santos*, Ricardo Siqueira da Silva, Marcus Alvarenga Soares, Érika Manuela Gonçalves Lopes, Farzin Shabani

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    4 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    This study aimed to identify the global risk of invasion and establishment of Bedellia somnulentella, a pest of the sweet potato crop, for the present and future time, to develop policies and prevent future outbreaks. Current climate projections and future (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100) of the insect B. somnulentella were carried out using CLIMEX. The projections showed that climate change could reduce areas of high aptitude for B. somnulentella in the parallel range of latitude 0°, the equator. On the other hand, temperate regions in the parallels with latitudes above 30°S and 30°N can increase hot and humid stress and become more suitable for the pest. This survey is based on weather data only. Data on land use and types, biotic interactions, diseases, natural enemies, alternative hosts, and competition were not considered for this model. Another uncertainty is associated with future levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The data presented here are helpful for the development of policies, studies, and strategies for the management of the B. somnulentella pest in the field. We encourage agricultural organizations in various countries to make strategic and long-term plans to avoid losses of millions of dollars through B. somnulentella.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)401-411
    Number of pages11
    JournalTheoretical and Applied Climatology
    Volume149
    Issue number1-2
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Jul 2022

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