GMT-MANIFEST project cost estimate case - applying the PMBOK Guide to the costing of instrumentation for ELTs

Appropriate project costing for astronomy instrumentation in early phases is pivotal to support the process of acquiring suitable funding. It also sustains the effective project cost management and increases the chances of project success. The absence of a clear method to project costing in the industry might lead projects to be undertaken at below cost at the risk of compromising quality and performance, eventually resulting in onerous cost overruns, and in worst cases, in failure and loss of reputation. This paper explores the use of techniques from the Project Management Body of Knowledge PMBOK applied to the cost estimate from conceptual design through to completion of one of instruments proposed for the Giant Magellan Telescope: MANIFEST, a robotic multi-fibre positioner that enhances the capabilities of other instruments in the telescope and enables the use of the telescope's full field of view. Whilst the accuracy of the cost estimate results cannot be asserted until the project reaches more maturity, the MANIFEST cost estimate has proven to be a useful tool for cost control, more efficient resource allocation and forecast, and decision enabling during the MANIFEST Conceptual Design Phase 1. The cost basis of estimate used establishes the starting point to measure the project costing efficacy and the baseline required for the future program costing updates.