Habitat in flames: How climate change will affect fire risk across koala forests

Farzin Shabani; Mahyat Shafapourtehrany; Mohsen Ahmadi; Bahareh Kalantar; Haluk Özener; Kieran Clancy; Atefeh Esmaeili; Ricardo Siqueira da Silva; Linda J. Beaumont; John Llewelyn; Simon Jones; Alessandro Ossola

doi:10.1016/j.eti.2023.103331

Habitat in flames: How climate change will affect fire risk across koala forests

Farzin Shabani^*, Mahyat Shafapourtehrany, Mohsen Ahmadi, Bahareh Kalantar, Haluk Özener, Kieran Clancy, Atefeh Esmaeili, Ricardo Siqueira da Silva, Linda J. Beaumont, John Llewelyn, Simon Jones, Alessandro Ossola

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Natural Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

Aim: Generate fire susceptibility maps for the present and 2070, to identify the threat wildfires pose to koalas now and under future climate change.

Location: Australia.

Time period: Present and 2070.

Major taxa studied: 60 main tree species browsed by koalas.

Method: The Decision Tree machine learning algorithm was applied to generate a fire susceptibility index (a measure of the potential for a given area or region to experience wildfires) using a dataset of conditioning factors, namely: altitude, aspect, rainfall, distance from rivers, distance from roads, forest type, geology, koala presence and future dietary sources, land use-land cover (LULC), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), slope, soil, temperature, and wind speed.

Results: We found a general increase in susceptibility of Australian vegetation to bushfires overall. The simulation for current conditions indicated that 39.56% of total koala habitat has a fire susceptibility rating of “very high” or “high”, increasing to 44.61% by 2070.

Main conclusions: Wildfires will increasingly impact koala populations in the future. If this iconic and vulnerable marsupial is to be protected, conservation strategies need to be adapted to deal with this threat. It is crucial to strike a balance between ensuring that koala habitats and populations are not completely destroyed by fire while also allowing for forest rejuvenation and regeneration through periodic burns.

Original language	English
Article number	103331
Pages (from-to)	1-12
Number of pages	12
Journal	Environmental Technology and Innovation
Volume	32
Early online date	14 Aug 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eti.2023.103331
Publication status	Published - Nov 2023

Bibliographical note

Copyright the Author(s) 2023. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

Keywords

Climate change
60 main tree species browsed by koalas
Decision Tree machine learning algorithm
Fire

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10.1016/j.eti.2023.103331

Publisher version (open access)Final published version, 2.35 MBLicence: CC BY

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Shabani, F., Shafapourtehrany, M., Ahmadi, M., Kalantar, B., Özener, H., Clancy, K., Esmaeili, A., da Silva, R. S., Beaumont, L. J., Llewelyn, J., Jones, S., & Ossola, A. (2023). Habitat in flames: How climate change will affect fire risk across koala forests. Environmental Technology and Innovation, 32, 1-12. Article 103331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eti.2023.103331

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abstract = "Aim: Generate fire susceptibility maps for the present and 2070, to identify the threat wildfires pose to koalas now and under future climate change. Location: Australia. Time period: Present and 2070. Major taxa studied: 60 main tree species browsed by koalas. Method: The Decision Tree machine learning algorithm was applied to generate a fire susceptibility index (a measure of the potential for a given area or region to experience wildfires) using a dataset of conditioning factors, namely: altitude, aspect, rainfall, distance from rivers, distance from roads, forest type, geology, koala presence and future dietary sources, land use-land cover (LULC), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), slope, soil, temperature, and wind speed. Results: We found a general increase in susceptibility of Australian vegetation to bushfires overall. The simulation for current conditions indicated that 39.56% of total koala habitat has a fire susceptibility rating of “very high” or “high”, increasing to 44.61% by 2070. Main conclusions: Wildfires will increasingly impact koala populations in the future. If this iconic and vulnerable marsupial is to be protected, conservation strategies need to be adapted to deal with this threat. It is crucial to strike a balance between ensuring that koala habitats and populations are not completely destroyed by fire while also allowing for forest rejuvenation and regeneration through periodic burns.",

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doi = "10.1016/j.eti.2023.103331",

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AU - Shabani, Farzin

AU - Shafapourtehrany, Mahyat

AU - Ahmadi, Mohsen

AU - Kalantar, Bahareh

AU - Özener, Haluk

AU - Clancy, Kieran

AU - Esmaeili, Atefeh

AU - da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira

AU - Beaumont, Linda J.

AU - Llewelyn, John

AU - Jones, Simon

AU - Ossola, Alessandro

N1 - Copyright the Author(s) 2023. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

PY - 2023/11

Y1 - 2023/11

N2 - Aim: Generate fire susceptibility maps for the present and 2070, to identify the threat wildfires pose to koalas now and under future climate change. Location: Australia. Time period: Present and 2070. Major taxa studied: 60 main tree species browsed by koalas. Method: The Decision Tree machine learning algorithm was applied to generate a fire susceptibility index (a measure of the potential for a given area or region to experience wildfires) using a dataset of conditioning factors, namely: altitude, aspect, rainfall, distance from rivers, distance from roads, forest type, geology, koala presence and future dietary sources, land use-land cover (LULC), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), slope, soil, temperature, and wind speed. Results: We found a general increase in susceptibility of Australian vegetation to bushfires overall. The simulation for current conditions indicated that 39.56% of total koala habitat has a fire susceptibility rating of “very high” or “high”, increasing to 44.61% by 2070. Main conclusions: Wildfires will increasingly impact koala populations in the future. If this iconic and vulnerable marsupial is to be protected, conservation strategies need to be adapted to deal with this threat. It is crucial to strike a balance between ensuring that koala habitats and populations are not completely destroyed by fire while also allowing for forest rejuvenation and regeneration through periodic burns.

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M1 - 103331

ER -

Habitat in flames: How climate change will affect fire risk across koala forests

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