Hybrid probabilistic risk assessment using fuzzy FTA and fuzzy AHP in a process industry

Mohammad Yazdi*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

80 Citations (Scopus)


There are many available techniques which are widely used for failure probability analysis. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a well-known method to identify the basic events (BEs) to reach top event. However, the FTA method in real circumstances is limited because of the many unknown and the vagueness of the situations. Thus, fuzzy set theory with respect to subjective expert opinion is employed to cope with the uncertain knowledge of BEs including randomness, ignorance, and shortages of data. In addition, to gain this purpose, much subjectivity may appear; as an example, the main one is the expert weighting. This study highlights the utility of fuzzy set theory and analytic hierarchy process to failure probability analysis in a case study. A chemical process plant has been selected to illustrate the application of proposed model with a comparison of the results with conventional model.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)756-764
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of Failure Analysis and Prevention
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2017
Externally publishedYes


  • Fuzzy AHP
  • Failure analysis
  • Fuzzy set theory
  • Fault tree


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