Identifying threshold responses of Australian dryland rivers to future hydroclimatic change

Z. T. Larkin*, T. J. Ralph, S. Tooth, K. A. Fryirs, J .R. Carthey

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)
1 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Rivers provide crucial ecosystem services in water-stressed drylands. Australian dryland rivers are geomorphologically diverse, ranging from through-going, single channels to discontinuous, multi-channelled systems, yet we have limited understanding of their sensitivity to future hydroclimatic changes. Here, we characterise for the first time the geomorphology of 29 dryland rivers with catchments across a humid to arid gradient covering >1,800,000 km2 of continental eastern and central Australia. Statistical separation of five specific dominantly alluvial river types and quantification of their present-day catchment hydroclimates enables identification of potential thresholds of change. Projected aridity increases across eastern Australia by 2070 (RCP4.5) will result in ~80% of the dryland rivers crossing a threshold from one type to another, manifesting in major geomorphological changes. Dramatic cases will see currently through-going rivers (e.g. Murrumbidgee, Macintyre) experience step changes towards greater discontinuity, characterised by pronounced downstream declines in channel size and local termination. Expanding our approach to include other river styles (e.g. mixed bedrock-alluvial) would allow similar analyses of dryland rivers globally where hydroclimate is an important driver of change. Early identification of dryland river responses to future hydroclimatic change has far-reaching implications for the ~2 billion people that live in drylands and rely on riverine ecosystem services.
Original languageEnglish
Article number6653
Pages (from-to)1-15
Number of pages15
JournalScientific Reports
Volume10
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 20 Apr 2020

Bibliographical note

Author correction exists for this article and can be found in Scientific Reports, 10, 12525 , doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-69597-5

Copyright the Author(s) 2020. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Identifying threshold responses of Australian dryland rivers to future hydroclimatic change'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this