China MARKAL-MACRO model, an integrated energy, environment and economy dynamic non-linear programming model, was developed to generate a reference scenario for China's future energy development and carbon emission and to analyze the potential impact of carbon emission reductions on the energy system. The results showed that China's marginal abatement costs for carbon are in the range of 45-254 USD/t for abatement rates of 10%-46% starting from the year 2030. Carbon emission reductions will raise the fossil fuel shadow price, decrease the energy service demand, and change the final and primary energy consumption and their mixes. Carbon emission reductions would reduce the final energy consumption due to the improved fuel mix and reduced energy service demand. The share of coal would be greatly reduced while the shares of low- and non-carbon energy sources especially nuclear, would be greatly increased in the total primary energy consumption with a high abatement rate. It is concluded that the characteristics of China's energy resources would restrict her carbon abatement potential.
|Number of pages||5|
|Journal||Qinghua Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Tsinghua University|
|Publication status||Published - Mar 2004|
- Carbon emission reductions
- Chinese MARKAL-MACRO model
- Energy consumption mix
- Energy service