Impact of indirect contacts in emerging infectious disease on social networks

Md Shahzamal*, Raja Jurdak, Bernard Mans, Ahmad El Shoghri, Frank De Hoog

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference proceeding contribution

Abstract

Interaction patterns among individuals play vital roles in spreading infectious diseases. Understanding these patterns and integrating their impact in modeling diffusion dynamics of infectious diseases are important for epidemiological studies. Current network-based diffusion models assume that diseases transmit through interactions where both infected and susceptible individuals are co-located at the same time. However, there are several infectious diseases that can transmit when a susceptible individual visits a location after an infected individual has left. Recently, we introduced a diffusion model called same place different time (SPDT) transmission to capture the indirect transmissions that happen when an infected individual leaves before a susceptible individual’s arrival along with direct transmissions. In this paper, we demonstrate how these indirect transmission links significantly enhance the emergence of infectious diseases simulating airborne disease spreading on a synthetic social contact network. We denote individuals having indirect links but no direct links during their infectious periods as hidden spreaders. Our simulation shows that indirect links play similar roles of direct links and a single hidden spreader can cause large outbreak in the SPDT model which causes no infection in the current model based on direct link. Our work opens new direction in modeling infectious diseases.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationTrends and Applications in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining
Subtitle of host publicationPAKDD 2018 Workshops, BDASC, BDM, ML4Cyber, PAISI, DaMEMO, Revised Selected Papers
EditorsMohadeseh Ganji, Lida Rashidi, Benjamin C. M. Fung, Can Wang
Place of PublicationCham
PublisherSpringer-VDI-Verlag GmbH & Co. KG
Pages53-65
Number of pages13
ISBN (Electronic)9783030045036
ISBN (Print)9783030045029
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018
Event22nd Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, PAKDD 2018 - Melbourne, Australia
Duration: 3 Jun 20183 Jun 2018

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume11154 LNAI
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Conference

Conference22nd Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, PAKDD 2018
CountryAustralia
CityMelbourne
Period3/06/183/06/18

Keywords

  • Disease spreading
  • Dynamic networks
  • Social networks

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  • Cite this

    Shahzamal, M., Jurdak, R., Mans, B., El Shoghri, A., & De Hoog, F. (2018). Impact of indirect contacts in emerging infectious disease on social networks. In M. Ganji, L. Rashidi, B. C. M. Fung, & C. Wang (Eds.), Trends and Applications in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining: PAKDD 2018 Workshops, BDASC, BDM, ML4Cyber, PAISI, DaMEMO, Revised Selected Papers (pp. 53-65). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics); Vol. 11154 LNAI). Cham: Springer-VDI-Verlag GmbH & Co. KG. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-04503-6_5