二氧化碳减排对中国未来GDP增长的影响

Translated title of the contribution: Impacts of future carbon emission reductions on the Chinese GDP growth

Wenying Chen*, Pengfei Gao, Jiankun He

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The China MARKAL-MACRO model was used to study the impacts of carbon emission reduction on the gross domestic product (GDP) growth for future carbon emission reduction in China. Six carbon emission reduction scenarios were designed. The results show that the GDP loss rate would be in 0-2.5% for reduction rates of 0-45%. The quantitatively GDP loss predictions for the whole planning horizon for the different reduction scenarios, indicates that the GDP would start to decline at around 10 years before setting the reduction constrains, and the GDP losses would gradually increase and last for several years after setting the reduction constrains. If the start of the emission reductions is the year of 2030, 2020 or 2010 instead of 2040, then the undiscounted total GDP losses in the whole planning horizon would be 0.58-0.74, 1.00-1.32, or 1.10-1.83 times higher.

Original languageChinese
Pages (from-to)744-747
Number of pages4
JournalQinghua Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Tsinghua University
Volume44
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2004
Externally publishedYes

    Fingerprint

Keywords

  • Carbon dioxide emission reduction
  • China MARKAL-MACRO model
  • GDP loss
  • Sustainable development

Cite this