Increased understanding of nutrient immobilization in soil organic matter is critical for predicting the carbon sink strength of forest ecosystems over the next 100 years

The terrestrial biosphere is currently thought to be a significant sink for atmospheric carbon (C). However, the future course of this sink under rising [CO₂] and temperature is uncertain. Some contrasting possibilities that have been suggested are: that the sink is currently increasing through CO₂ fertilization of plant growth but will decline over the next few decades because of CO₂ saturation and soil nutrient constraints; that the sink will continue to increase over the next century because rising temperature will stimulate the release of plant-available soil nitrogen (N) through increased soil decomposition; that, alternatively, the sink will not be sustained because the additional soil N released will be immobilized in the soil rather than taken up by plants; or that the sink will soon become negative because loss of soil C through temperature stimulation of soil respiration will override any CO₂ or temperature stimulation of plant growth. Soil N immobilization is thus a key process; however, it remains poorly understood. In this paper we use a forest ecosystem model of plant-soil C and N dynamics to gauge the importance of this uncertainty for predictions of the future C sink of forests under rising [CO₂] and temperature. We characterize soil N immobilization by the degree of variability of soil N:C ratios assumed in the model. We show that the modeled C sink of a stand of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in northern Sweden is highly sensitive to this assumption. Under increasing temperature, the model predicts a strong C sink when soil N:C is inflexible, but a greatly reduced C sink when soil N:C is allowed to vary. In complete contrast, increasing atmospheric [CO₂] leads to a much stronger C sink when soil N:C is variable. When both temperature and [CO₂] increase, the C sink strength is relatively insensitive to variability in soil N:C; significantly, however, with inflexible soil N:C the C sink is primarily a temperature response whereas with variable soil N:C, it is a combined temperature-CO₂ response. Simulations with gradual increases of temperature and [CO₂] indicate a sustained C sink over the next 100 years, in contrast to recent claims that the C sink will decline over the next few decades. Nevertheless, in using a relatively simple model, our primary aim is not to make precise predictions of the C sink over the next 100 years, but rather to highlight key areas of model uncertainty requiring further experimental clarification. Here we show that improved understanding of the processes underlying soil N immobilization is essential if we are to predict the future course of the forest carbon sink.