Increasing HIV prevalence in a rural district of South Africa from 1992 through 1995

Objectives: To describe the increasing prevalence of HIV infection in a rural district in South Africa, to compare this with a nearby urban setting, and to estimate the prevalence of infection in the general population of the rural district. Design: Serial anonymous cross-sectional HIV seroprevalence surveys among consecutive women attending antenatal clinics in the rural Hlabisa health district, and the urban King Edward VIII Hospital, Durban, South Africa. Results: Crude antenatal HIV seroprevalence in Hlabisa increased from 4.2% (95% confidence interval [95%CI], 3.0-5.7) in 1992, to 14% (95%CI, 10.4-18.4) in 1995 (p < 0.0001). Age-specific prevalence was highest in women aged 20 to 24 years (21.1% in 1995) and in the more urbanized areas of the district (29.5% in 1995). Prevalence in Durban, at 19% (95%CI, 16.5-21.7), was higher than in Hlabisa in 1995 (p = 0.046), in large part as a result of the higher prevalence in the 15 to 19 year age group in Durban (22.4% vs. 7.4%, p = 0.004). An estimated 5.6% (95%CI, 3.0-9.6) of the general population of the Hlabisa district was HIV infected in 1995. Conclusions: The HIV epidemic, fueled by a high incidence in young people, has escalated rapidly in this part of rural South Africa. Lower crude rural than urban prevalence is largely a result of a lower prevalence in young rural women; the underlying social reasons for this need to be fully explored. South Africa urgently needs to implement effective prevention programs, to plan for the impact of HIV-related disease on the health service, and to develop community-based care strategies.