India-Pakistan geopolitical competition and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

After the withdrawal of US-led foreign troops and the collapse of Afghanistan’s democratic government in August 2021, the Taliban’s quick capture of Kabul generated initial celebrations in Pakistan because of the prevailing belief that the Taliban’s dominance would facilitate India’s reduced influence in Afghanistan. However, this optimism short-lived, as Pakistan soon grappled with the complexities of its reduced control over the Afghan Taliban. In contrast, India, perceiving the Taliban primarily as a proxy of Pakistan, quickly closed its diplomatic missions in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, the subsequent actions of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) revealed a marked autonomy from external influence, particularly from Pakistan, thereby presenting India with a renewed opportunity to re-establish its presence in Afghanistan. This article examines the geostrategic interests of India and Pakistan in Afghanistan, by focusing on their engagement with proxy actors to further their national interests. This research engages with the proxy war literature, exploring how the evolving dynamics between the Taliban and its traditional sponsors reflect broader shifts in regional power dynamics. By analyzing the Taliban’s increasing autonomy, this article contributes to a better understanding of proxy relationships, arguing that the geopolitical ambitions of India and Pakistan continue to drive their engagement with the Taliban regime despite persistent concerns over stability. Ultimately, the IEA, despite lacking formal international recognition, is exhibiting behaviors characteristic of a sovereign state, employing a balancing strategy in its relations with both India and Pakistan.