Integrating social-ecological vulnerability assessments with climate forecasts to improve local climate adaptation planning for coral reef fisheries in Papua New Guinea

Joseph Maina, Justus Kithiia, Josh Cinner, Ezra Neale, Sylvia Noble, Daniel Charles, James E M Watson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

A major gap exists in integrating climate projections and social–ecological vulnerability analyses at scales that matter, which has affected local-scale adaptation planning and actions to date. We address this gap by providing a novel methodology that integrates information on: (i) the expected future climate, including climate-related extreme events, at the village level; (ii) an ecological assessment of the impacts of these climate forecasts on coral reefs; and (iii) the social adaptive capacity of the artisanal fishers, to create an integrated vulnerability assessment on coastal communities in five villages in Papua New Guinea. We show that, despite relatively proximate geographies, there are substantial differences in both the predicted extreme rainfall and temperature events and the social adaptive capacity among the five fishing-dependent communities, meaning that they have likely different vulnerabilities to future climate change. Our methodology shows that it is possible to capture social information and integrate this with climate and ecological modeling in ways that are best suited to address the impacts of climate-mediated environmental changes currently underway across different scales.

LanguageEnglish
Pages881-891
Number of pages11
JournalRegional Environmental Change
Volume16
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2016
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

coral reef
vulnerability
fishery
climate
village
ecological modeling
methodology
extreme event
climate modeling
environmental change
fishing
planning
forecast
rainfall
climate change
temperature

Keywords

  • Adaptation planning
  • Climate change
  • Coral reef fisheries
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Socioecological vulnerability

Cite this

Maina, Joseph ; Kithiia, Justus ; Cinner, Josh ; Neale, Ezra ; Noble, Sylvia ; Charles, Daniel ; Watson, James E M. / Integrating social-ecological vulnerability assessments with climate forecasts to improve local climate adaptation planning for coral reef fisheries in Papua New Guinea. In: Regional Environmental Change. 2016 ; Vol. 16, No. 3. pp. 881-891.
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Integrating social-ecological vulnerability assessments with climate forecasts to improve local climate adaptation planning for coral reef fisheries in Papua New Guinea. / Maina, Joseph; Kithiia, Justus; Cinner, Josh; Neale, Ezra; Noble, Sylvia; Charles, Daniel; Watson, James E M.

In: Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 16, No. 3, 01.03.2016, p. 881-891.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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