Japanese banks: tail risk and capital buffers

David E. Allen, Akhmad R. Kramadibrata, Robert J. Powell, Abhay Singh

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This paper applies quantile regression to a structural credit model to investigate the impact of extreme bank asset value fluctuations on capital adequacy and default probabilities (PD) of Japanese Banks. Quantile regression allows modelling of the extreme quantiles of a distribution which allows measurement of capital and PDs at the most extreme points of an economic downturn, when banks are most likely to fail. Outcomes are compared to traditional structural measures. We find highly significant variances in capital adequacy and default probabilities between quantiles, and show how these variances can assist banks and regulators in calculating capital buffers to sustain banks through volatile times.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)7-27
Number of pages21
JournalInternational Journal of Business Studies
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Externally publishedYes


  • quantile regression
  • Japanese banks
  • probability of default
  • capital adequacy


Dive into the research topics of 'Japanese banks: tail risk and capital buffers'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this