Low paid jobs and unemployment: churning in the Australian labour market, 2001 to 2006

This article explores the links between low pay, unemployment and labour market churning over the period 2001 to 2006. The issue of churning is explored through analysis of the HILDA calendar data, in which job starts and job terminations are modelled using multinomial logit regressions. The results are further explored using multilevel binomial logit models. Predicted probabilities of moving from job to job, from unemployment into jobs, and from jobs into unemployment, are calculated and these show that low paid, low skilled workers are highly vulnerable to labour market churning. Certain demographic groups, particularly migrants from particular regions, are also shown to be vulnerable. The results reinforce the importance of labour market policies which prioritise job continuity, skills development and earnings improvement rather than simply focusing on job attainment.