Macro fundamentals as a source of stock market volatility in China: a GARCH-MIDAS approach

Eric Girardin, Roselyne Joyeux*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

45 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In order to shed new light on the influence of volume and economic fundamentals on the long-run volatility of the Chinese stock market we follow the methodology introduced by Engle et al. (2009) and Engle and Rangel (2008) to account for the effects of macro fundamentals, and augment it with speculative factors. We show that the Chinese A-share market presented speculative characteristics before WTO entry in late 2001. However, after that date macroeconomic fundamentals and their volatility played an increasing role in the A-share market, especially CPI inflation, at the expense of speculative factors, proxied by volume. The B-share market has shown speculative characteristics since it was opened to domestic investors in 2001. However the disconnect of long-run stock market volatility from real economic activity in China is particularly noteworthy.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)59-68
Number of pages10
JournalEconomic Modelling
Volume34
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2013

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