Mapping global risk levels of Bemisia tabaci in areas of suitability for open field tomato cultivation under current and future climates

Rodrigo Soares Ramos*, Lalit Kumar, Farzin Shabani, Marcelo Coutinho Picanço

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

18 Citations (Scopus)
1 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, is a major threat to tomato Solanum lycopersicum and ranks as one of the world’s 100 most invasive pests. This is the first study of B. tabaci (Biotype B and Q) global distribution, focusing on risk levels of this invasive pest, in areas projected to be suitable for open field S. lycopersicum cultivation under climate change. This study aims to identify levels of risk of invasive B. tabaci for areas of suitability for open field S. lycopersicum cultivation for the present, 2050 and 2070 using MaxEnt and the Global Climate Model, HadGEM2_ES under RCP45. Our results show that 5% of areas optimal for open field S. lycopersicum cultivation are currently at high risk of B. tabaci. Among the optimal areas for S. lycopersicum, the projections for 2050 compared to the current time showed an extension of 180% in areas under high risk, and a shortening of 67 and 27% in areas under medium and low risk of B. tabaci, respectively, while projections for 2070 showed an extension of 164, and a shortening of 49 and 64% under high, medium and low risk, respectively. The basis of these projections is that predicted temperature increases could affect the pest, which has great adaptability to different climate conditions, but could also impose limitations on the growth of S. lycopersicum. These results may be used in designing strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of B. tabaci for open-field tomato crops, and assist the implementation of pest management programs.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0198925
Number of pages20
JournalPLoS ONE
Volume13
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 14 Jun 2018
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Copyright the Author(s) 2018. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

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