Marine transportation risk assessment using Bayesian Network: application to Arctic waters

Maritime transportation poses risks regarding possible accidents resulting in damage to vessels, crew members and to the ecosystem. The safe navigation of ships, especially in the Arctic waters, is a growing concern to maritime authorities. This study proposes a new risk model applicable to the Northern Sea Route (NSR) to investigate the possibility of marine accidents such as collision, foundering and grounding. The model is developed using Bayesian Network (BN). The proposed risk model has considered different operational and environmental factors that affect shipping operations. Historical data and expert judgments are used to estimate the base value (prior values) of various operational and environmental factors. The application of the model is demonstrated through a case study of an oil-tanker navigating the NSR. The case study confirms the highest collision, foundering and grounding probabilities in the East Siberian Sea. However, foundering probabilities are very low in all five regions. By running uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of the model, a significant change in the likelihood of the occurrence of accidental events is identified. The model suggests ice effect as a dominant factor in accident causation. The case study illustrates the priority of the model in investigating the operational risk of accidents. The estimated risk provides early warning to take appropriate preventive and mitigative measures to enhance the overall safety of shipping operations.