Market uncertainty, risk aversion, and macroeconomic expectations

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Abstract

In a dynamic model, this paper characterises the interaction between macroeconomic expectation, risk aversion, and market uncertainty. From survey dispersion forecast, we capture macroeconomic expectation using monetary policy uncertainty, business outlook, and consumer confidence, while risk aversion and market uncertainty measures are derived from realised and implied volatilities. We find that shocks to these dispersion measures significantly affect market uncertainty, risk aversion, and macroeconomic variables. Shocks to monetary policy certainty, business outlook, and consumer confidence significantly lower risk aversion and market uncertainty. Shocks to monetary policy stance have a persistent, but minute effect on risk aversion, uncertainty, and macroeconomic variables.
Original languageEnglish
JournalEmpirical Economics
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 9 Jul 2019

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Keywords

  • Business confidence
  • Monetary policy
  • Risk aversion
  • Survey
  • Uncertainty

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