Mitigation of the earth's economy

This paper proposes reflexive mitigation as an ecologically effective insurance system response to dangerous anthropogenic climate change. Reflexive mitigation is an adaptive approach to mitigating climate change recognizing (1) atmospheric CO₂e concentrations consistent with Earth system stability will vary over time in response to changes in the Earth system and the global economy, and in the relationship between them; and (2) relationships between the Earth system, the economy and the insurance system are evolving, and therefore understanding of them is necessarily incomplete. The paper presents a complex adaptive systems approach to anthropogenic climate change and demonstrates that the Earth system, the global economy and the insurance system are connected social ecological systems. Current insurance system responses to anthropogenic climate change are generally adaptive and weakly mitigative rather than strongly mitigative. The paper argues successful insurance system adaptation to anthropogenic climate change depends on returning the climate to a stable, familiar and relatively predictable state: effective mitigation is therefore a necessary precondition for successful longer-term insurance system adaptation.