Negotiated repression: Islamism and state control in the Jokowi era

Based on interviews with scores of Islamist activists from Java, Sumatra and Sulawesi from 2022 to early 2024, I argue that a pattern of negotiated repression has emerged since late 2016. The repression, though intensified, is negotiated, involving a calibrated approach of tailored incentives and punishments based on detailed intelligence and continuous interactions between state security agents and individual targets. Jokowi’s approach to Islamist groups stands in contrast to former president Yudhoyono’s strategy, where intolerant Islamists were largely accommodated. Yet the scale and intensity of Jokowi’s repression is nowhere near Suharto’s, despite some similarities in method. What are Jokowi’s motives, and how significant is his role in driving the repression compared to other state agencies? What are the impacts on Islamist groups?