News sentiment and states of stock return volatility

evidence from long memory and discrete choice models

Y. Shi*, K. H. Ho

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference proceeding contribution

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the states of firm-level return volatility and public news sentiment. To incorporate structural breaks into modelling the long memory property of stock return volatility, we develop FIGARCH models that allow the constant in the conditional variance to vary with time. Following this train of thought, we firstly propose a Markov Regime-Switching FIGARCH (MRS-FIGARCH) model that allows the constant term to switch between low and high volatility states. This model is shown to outperform the Adaptive FIGARCH and Time-Varying FIGARCH models with respect to model comparison criteria. It is subsequently used to estimate the smoothing probability and the conditional variance. Second, states of firm-level return volatility are identified by comparing the previously generated smoothing probability with certain thresholds. Then, we employ discrete choice models to investigate the impact of public news sentiment on the volatility states of hourly returns of constituent stocks in the Dow Jones Composite Average (DJN 65). Our news dataset is constructed from the new RavenPack Dow Jones News Analytics database that captures over 1200 types of firm-specific and macroeconomic news releases and their sentiment scores at high frequencies. Estimated results show that news sentiment has various significant effects on the likelihood of volatility states of intraday stock return.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationMODSIM2013
Subtitle of host publication20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation
EditorsJ. Piantadosi, R. S. Anderssen, J. Boland
Place of PublicationCanberra
PublisherModelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand
Pages1378-1384
Number of pages7
ISBN (Print)9780987214331
Publication statusPublished - 2013
Externally publishedYes
Event20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM) - Adelaide, Australia
Duration: 1 Dec 20136 Dec 2013

Conference

Conference20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM)
CountryAustralia
CityAdelaide
Period1/12/136/12/13

Keywords

  • Public Information Arrival
  • Asset Volatility
  • News Sentiment
  • Markov Regime-Switching FIGARCH
  • Discrete Choice Model

Cite this

Shi, Y., & Ho, K. H. (2013). News sentiment and states of stock return volatility: evidence from long memory and discrete choice models. In J. Piantadosi, R. S. Anderssen, & J. Boland (Eds.), MODSIM2013: 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 1378-1384). Canberra: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.