No such thing as a free movie? Cross-country evidence on the potential impact of AVOD streaming services

This study investigates potential disruption from advertising-based video-on-demand (AVOD) streaming for new-release in-home films. Using stated-preference discrete choice experiments on representative samples from four major countries, we model demand and examine substitution patterns between AVOD and the incumbent transactional video-on-demand (TVOD) model. In addition, we consider illegal streaming alternatives, including the possibility of using a VPN to provide anonymity of the unlawful activity. We find strong preferences for AVOD across each country sample, with large cross-price substitution patterns away from TVOD. An entry simulation exercise provides back-of-the-envelope estimates for ad pricing required to offset reduced revenues if AVOD were offered alongside TVOD for new-release in-home films.