Di zhen shu zhi yu bao

Translated title of the contribution: Numerical earthquake prediction

Yao-lin Shi, Bei Zhang, Siqi Zhang, Huai Zhang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Can earthquakes be predicted? How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction? This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earthquake prediction must also develop from empirical forecasting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out.
Translated title of the contributionNumerical earthquake prediction
Original languageChinese
Pages (from-to)237-255
Number of pages19
JournalWu li = Physics
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 2013
Externally publishedYes


  • earthquake prediction
  • geodynamics
  • numerical method
  • nonlinear dyamics
  • weather forecast


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