Organizing principles for vegetation dynamics

Oskar Franklin*, Sandy P. Harrison, Roderick Dewar, Caroline E. Farrior, Åke Brännström, Ulf Dieckmann, Stephan Pietsch, Daniel Falster, Wolfgang Cramer, Michel Loreau, Han Wang, Annikki Mäkelä, Karin T. Rebel, Ehud Meron, Stanislaus J. Schymanski, Elena Rovenskaya, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sönke Zaehle, Stefano Manzoni, Marcel van OijenIan J. Wright, Philippe Ciais, Peter M. van Bodegom, Josep Peñuelas, Florian Hofhansl, Cesar Terrer, Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia, Guy Midgley, I. Colin Prentice

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    41 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Plants and vegetation play a critical—but largely unpredictable—role in global environmental changes due to the multitude of contributing processes at widely different spatial and temporal scales. In this Perspective, we explore approaches to master this complexity and improve our ability to predict vegetation dynamics by explicitly taking account of principles that constrain plant and ecosystem behaviour: natural selection, self-organization and entropy maximization. These ideas are increasingly being used in vegetation models, but we argue that their full potential has yet to be realized. We demonstrate the power of natural selection-based optimality principles to predict photosynthetic and carbon allocation responses to multiple environmental drivers, as well as how individual plasticity leads to the predictable self-organization of forest canopies. We show how models of natural selection acting on a few key traits can generate realistic plant communities and how entropy maximization can identify the most probable outcomes of community dynamics in space- and time-varying environments. Finally, we present a roadmap indicating how these principles could be combined in a new generation of models with stronger theoretical foundations and an improved capacity to predict complex vegetation responses to environmental change.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)444-453
    Number of pages10
    JournalNature Plants
    Volume6
    Issue number5
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - May 2020

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