Penalized likelihood estimation of a mixture cure Cox model with partly interval censoring—An application to thin melanoma

Time-to-event data in medical studies may involve some patients who are cured and will never experience the event of interest. In practice, those cured patients are right censored. However, when data contain a cured fraction, standard survival methods such as Cox proportional hazards models can produce biased results and therefore misleading interpretations. In addition, for some outcomes, the exact time of an event is not known; instead an interval of time in which the event occurred is recorded. This article proposes a new computational approach that can deal with both the cured fraction issues and the interval censoring challenge. To do so, we extend the traditional mixture cure Cox model to accommodate data with partly interval censoring for the observed event times. The traditional method for estimation of the model parameters is based on the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, where the log-likelihood is maximized through an indirect complete data log-likelihood function. We propose in this article an alternative algorithm that directly optimizes the log-likelihood function. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the new method over the EM algorithm. The main advantage of the new algorithm is the generation of asymptotic variance matrices for all the estimated parameters. The new method is applied to a thin melanoma dataset to predict melanoma recurrence. Various inferences, including survival and hazard function plots with point-wise confidence intervals, are presented. An R package is now available at Github and will be uploaded to R CRAN.