Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods

Han Lin Shang

doi:10.1007/s12546-012-9087-4

Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods

Han Lin Shang^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for government policy, planning and decision making. With the availability of the Human Fertility Database (2011), the paper compares the empirical accuracy of the point and interval forecasts, obtained by the approach of Hyndman and Ullah (Comput Stat Data Anal 51(10), 4942–4956, 2007) and its variants for forecasting age-specific fertility rates. The analyses are carried out using the age-specific fertility data of 15 mostly developed countries. Based on the one-step-ahead to 20-step-ahead forecast error measures, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point and interval forecasts for forecasting age-specific fertility rates, among all the methods we investigated.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	249–267
Number of pages	19
Journal	Journal of Population Research
Volume	29
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-012-9087-4
Publication status	Published - Sept 2012
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Functional data analysis
Functional principal component analysis
Forecast accuracy comparison
Random walk with drift
Random walk
ARIMA model

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10.1007/s12546-012-9087-4

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abstract = "Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for government policy, planning and decision making. With the availability of the Human Fertility Database (2011), the paper compares the empirical accuracy of the point and interval forecasts, obtained by the approach of Hyndman and Ullah (Comput Stat Data Anal 51(10), 4942–4956, 2007) and its variants for forecasting age-specific fertility rates. The analyses are carried out using the age-specific fertility data of 15 mostly developed countries. Based on the one-step-ahead to 20-step-ahead forecast error measures, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point and interval forecasts for forecasting age-specific fertility rates, among all the methods we investigated.",

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AB - Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for government policy, planning and decision making. With the availability of the Human Fertility Database (2011), the paper compares the empirical accuracy of the point and interval forecasts, obtained by the approach of Hyndman and Ullah (Comput Stat Data Anal 51(10), 4942–4956, 2007) and its variants for forecasting age-specific fertility rates. The analyses are carried out using the age-specific fertility data of 15 mostly developed countries. Based on the one-step-ahead to 20-step-ahead forecast error measures, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point and interval forecasts for forecasting age-specific fertility rates, among all the methods we investigated.

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KW - ARIMA model

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Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods

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Keywords

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