Predictive validity of the undergraduate medicine and health sciences admission test for medical students' academic performance

Objective: To determine the predictive validity of the Undergraduate Medicine and Health Sciences Admission Test (UMAT) for academic performance at university. Design, setting and participants: We studied all 339 students who entered medical study at the School of Medicine, University of Queensland, directly from high school, between 2005 and 2009. Main outcome measures: UMAT scores before entry compared with grade point averages (GPAs) during university study. Results: Mean overall UMAT score at entry was 60/100 and mean GPA during university study was 6.1 (range, 1-7), with a correlation coefficient of 0.15 (P=0.005). This relationship existed only in the first year of university study. For UMAT Section 1 score, the correlation coefficient was 0.14 (P=0.01); for UMAT Section 2, the correlation coefficient was 0.06 (P=0.29); and for UMAT Section 3, the correlation coefficient was 0.09 (P = 0.11). UMAT overall score for men (60.2) and women (59.8), and GPA for men (6.1) and women (6.2) were similar. However, men performed better in Section 1 (mean score 61.6 v 61; P=0.05) and Section 3 (63.2 v 60.7; P<0.001), whereas women performed better in Section 2 (58.5 v 55.8; P=0.009). In multivariate analysis, only correlation between GPA and UMAT Section 1 score remained significant but was weak and lasted for 1 year of university study. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that UMAT has limited predictive validity for academic performance.