Pricing dynamic fund protection under hidden Markov models

Kun Fan*, Yang Shen, Tak Kuen Siu, Rongming Wang

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    7 Citations (Scopus)


    In this article, we discuss the pricing of dynamic fund protection when the value process of the investment fund is governed by a geometric Brownian motion with parameters modulated by a continuous-time, finitestate hidden Markov chain. Under a risk-neutral probability measure, selected by the Esscher transform, we adopt the partial differential equation approach to value the dynamic fund protection. Using the estimated sequence of the hidden Markov chain, we apply the Baum-Welch algorithm and the Viterbi algorithm to derive the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the practical implementation of the model.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)99-117
    Number of pages19
    JournalIMA Journal of Management Mathematics
    Issue number1
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2018


    • dynamic fund protection
    • hidden Markov model
    • Baum–Welch algorithm
    • Viterbi algorithm


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