Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for ports and harbors

Hong Kie Thio*, Paul Somerville, Jascha Polet, Gene Ichinose

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference proceeding contributionpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


The December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake emphasized the need for a consistent and comprehensive assessment of tsunami hazard. We have developed a method for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) based on the traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. In lieu of attenuation relations, it uses the summation of finite-difference Green's functions that have been pre-computed for individual subfaults, which enables us to rapidly construct scenario tsunami waveforms from an aggregate of subfaults that comprise a single large event. For every fault system, it is then possible to integrate over sets of thousands of events within a certain magnitude range that represents a fully probabilistic distribution. Because of the enclosed nature of ports and harbors, effects of resonance need to be addressed as well, which is why have extended this method to not only analyze exceedance levels of maximum wave height, but also of spectral amplitudes. As in PSHA, these spectral amplitudes can be matched with the spectral response of harbors, and thus allow a comprehensive probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazard in ports and harbors. Copyright ASCE 2007.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationPorts 2007: 30 Years of Sharing Ideas 1977-2007; Proceedings of the Eleventh Triennial International Conference
Place of PublicationReston, VA
Number of pages1
Publication statusPublished - 2007
Externally publishedYes
EventPorts 2007: 30 Years of Sharing Ideas 1977-2007 - San Diego, CA, United States
Duration: 25 Mar 200728 Mar 2007


OtherPorts 2007: 30 Years of Sharing Ideas 1977-2007
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CitySan Diego, CA


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