Progression to second and third births in China: Patterns and covariates in six provinces

Data on ever-married women of reproductive age from six Chinese provinces were obtained from the 1987 In-Depth Fertility Survey, Phase II, to examine whether government population policies related to child mortality, rural residence, ethnic group and gender of the firstborn child, or individual characteristics such as educational level and living standard, are more important in determining which women have more than one child. Among women who had a first birth during 1977-1987, the proportions in each province who had a second birth within 10 years of the first ranged from 30% to 93%, and the proportions who had a third birth within 10 years of their second ranged from 15% to 80%. While all covariates proved important, the most significant covariate for predicting a second birth, particularly in areas where few women have more than one child, was the death of the previous child. Having a daughter the first time also had a strong positive effect on the likelihood of having a second birth in some areas. While living standard had a significant effect on the likelihood of having a second birth in some areas, the findings do not support conjecture that rural families with the economic means to pay the penalties are more likely to have a second child. The results for third births were similar to those for second births.