Red hot frogs: identifying the Australian frogs most at risk of extinction

Hayley M. Geyle*, Conrad J. Hoskin, Deborah S. Bower, Renee Catullo, Simon Clulow, Michael Driessen, Katrina Daniels, Stephen T. Garnett, Deon Gilbert, Geoffrey W. Heard, Jean-Marc Hero, Harry B. Hines, Emily P. Hoffmann, Greg Hollis, David A. Hunter, Frank Lemckert, Michael Mahony, Gerry Marantelli, Keith R. McDonald, Nicola J. MitchellDavid Newell, J. Dale Roberts, Ben C. Scheele, Michael Scroggie, Eric Vanderduys, Skye Wassens, Matt West, John C. Z. Woinarski, Graeme R. Gillespie

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)
4 Downloads (Pure)


More than a third of the world's amphibian species are listed as Threatened or Extinct, with a recent assessment identifying 45 Australian frogs (18.4% of the currently recognised species) as 'Threatened' based on IUCN criteria. We applied structured expert elicitation to 26 frogs assessed as Critically Endangered and Endangered to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also investigated whether participant experience (measured as a self-assigned categorical score, i.e. 'expert' or 'non-expert') influenced the estimates. Collation and analysis of participant opinion indicated that eight species are at high risk (>50% chance) of becoming extinct by 2040, with the disease chytridiomycosis identified as the primary threat. A further five species are at moderate-high risk (30-50% chance), primarily due to climate change. Fourteen of the 26 frog species are endemic to Queensland, with many species restricted to small geographic ranges that are susceptible to stochastic events (e.g. a severe heatwave or a large bushfire). Experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for poorly known species (those with <10 experts), while non-experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for better-known species. However, scores converged following discussion, indicating that there was greater consensus in the estimates of extinction probability. Increased resourcing and management intervention are urgently needed to avert future extinctions of Australia's frogs. Key priorities include developing and supporting captive management and establishing or extending in-situ population refuges to alleviate the impacts of disease and climate change.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)211-223
Number of pages13
JournalPacific Conservation Biology
Issue number3
Early online date20 Aug 2021
Publication statusPublished - 2022
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Copyright the Publisher 2022. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.


  • amphibian
  • anthropogenic mass extinction crisis
  • Australia
  • biodiversity conservation
  • climate change
  • Delphi
  • expert elicitation
  • frog
  • IDEA
  • IUCN criteria
  • threatening processes


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