Revealed word-of-mouth demand and adaptive supply

Survival of motion pictures at the Australian box office

Jordi McKenzie*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

35 Citations (Scopus)


This study considers a frailty duration approach to modelling the life-length of a sample of 360 films that went into wide release at the Australian box office from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2005. The analysis extends previous research by considering a range of film-specific covariates relating to distribution, production, consumer signals, and weekly performance. In particular, it is shown that film success (defined in a duration context) responds to previewing, advertising, critical reviews, and US box office-but not to production budget, star power or opening-week screens. The study also reveals that it is appropriate to account for unobservable heterogeneity between films in the choice of empirical methodology.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)279-299
Number of pages21
JournalJournal of Cultural Economics
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2009
Externally publishedYes

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