Spatial dynamics of inflammation-causing and commensal bacteria in the gastrointestinal tract

In recent years, new research programmes have been initiated to understand the role of gut bacteria in health and disease, enabled in large part by the emergence of high-throughput sequencing. As new genomic and other data emerge it will become important to explain observations in terms of underlying population mechanisms; for instance, it is of interest to understand how resident bacteria interact with their hosts and pathogens, and how they play a protective role. Connecting underlying processes with observed patterns is aided by the development of mathematical models. Here, we develop a spatial model of microbial populations in the gastrointestinal tract to explore conditions under which inflammation-causing bacteria can invade the gut and under which such pathogens become persistent. We find that pathogens invade both small and large intestine from even a relatively small inoculum size but are usually eliminated by the host response. When the immune response is weak, the pathogen is able to persist for a long period. Spatial structure affects these dynamics by creating moving refugia which facilitate bouts of pathogen resurgence and inflammation in persistent infections. Space also plays a role in repopulation by commensals after infection. We further find that the rate of decay of inflammation has a stronger effect on outcomes than the initiation of inflammation or other parameters. Finally, we explore the impact of partially inflammation-resistant commensals on these dynamics.