Statistically tested comparisons of the accuracy of forecasting methods for age-specific and sex-specific mortality and life expectancy

Han Lin Shang*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Although there are continuing developments in the methods for forecasting mortality, there are few comparisons of the accuracy of the forecasts. The subject of the statistical validity of these comparisons, which is essential to demographic forecasting, has all but been ignored. We introduce Friedman's test statistics to examine whether the differences in point and interval forecast accuracies are statistically significant between methods. We introduce the Nemenyi test statistic to identify which methods give results that are statistically significantly different from others. Using sex-specific and age-specific data from 20 countries, we apply these two test statistics to examine the forecast accuracy obtained from several principal component methods, which can be categorized into coherent and non-coherent forecasting methods.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)317-335
Number of pages19
JournalPopulation Studies
Volume69
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2 Sep 2015
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Friedman’s test statistics
  • Nemenyi’s test statistics
  • Lee–Carter method
  • Lee–Miller method
  • Hyndman–Ullah method
  • functional time-series forecasting
  • mean absolute forecast error
  • interval score
  • Nemenyi's test statistics
  • Friedman's test statistics

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