Stochastic convergence in per capita CO2 emissions

Evidence from emerging economies, 1921–2014

Sefa Awaworyi Churchill, John Inekwe, Kris Ivanovski

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We employ the recently developed LM and RALS-LM unit root tests that allow for endogenously determined structural breaks to study stochastic convergence in relative per capita CO2 emissions over the period 1921 to 2014 for a balanced panel of emerging market economies. The results provide mixed evidence of the presence of stochastic convergence. In particular, stochastic convergence is achieved for eleven out of the seventeen countries under investigation. This implies that the energy regulatory framework in these countries needs to be revaluated in order to reduce the carbon footprint. To further comprehend the factors behind the observed disparities in emission stability, we analyse the determinants of the identified groups. An examination of the determinants of the observed behaviour in relative per capita CO2 emissions reveal that income, population, financial development and trade are significant drivers, with trade predominantly playing a larger role in emission growth. Also, weak evidence is found in terms of a catching-up effect in the growth of relative per capita CO2 emissions.
Original languageEnglish
Article number104659
Number of pages11
JournalEnergy Economics
Early online date2 Jan 2020
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2020



  • Emerging markets
  • Energy convergence
  • Unit root test

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