Stochastic modelling of the hybrid survival curve

Chong It Tan*, Jackie Li, Johnny Siu Hang Li, Uditha Balasooriya

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


In this paper, building upon the idea of cross-sectional survival probabilities developed by Brouard (Espaces Popul Soc 2(14–15):157–168, 1986), we propose using stochastic models to study the evolution of a new type of survival curves called hybrid survival curve. We find that the three-factor survival model provides a better model fitting than the two-factor survival model. Furthermore, the three time-varying parameters are highly interpretable and their respective trends can be used as an indicator for the rectangularisation of survival curve. On top of that, we demonstrate how the time-varying parameters can be extrapolated into the future to obtain projected hybrid survival curves.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)307-331
Number of pages25
JournalJournal of Population Research
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2016


  • period survival curves
  • cohort survival curves
  • rectangualrisation
  • stochastic models
  • time-varying parameters


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