Stock market closure and intraday stock index futures market volatility: "Contagion", bid-ask bias or both?

Kingsley Fong*, Alex Frino

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Chang et al. [Journal of Business 68 (1) (1995) 61] examine the impact of the closure of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on S&P500 stock index futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. They document a decline in futures market volatility immediately after the close of the NYSE, and an increase 15 minutes later when the futures market closes. They attribute this to contagion-i.e. a decline in information transfer from equities to futures markets following the closure of the underlying market. This paper examines the impact of the extension of trading hours in Hang Seng Index futures traded on the Hong Kong Futures Exchange on the 20 November, 1998 to 15 minutes after the close of the underlying market (the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong). Using the unique natural experiment provided by this change, a pattern similar to US markets is documented for the Hang Seng Index Futures following the change in trading hours. This provides strong evidence that the intraday pattern in volatility is caused by market closure. Unlike US futures exchanges, price reporters on the floor of the Hong Kong Futures Exchange collect quote data in addition to trade data. This data facilitates a test of another plausible microstructure explanation for the observed behaviour-bid-ask bounce associated with trading activity. This paper provides evidence that bid-ask bounce also explains part of the observed intraday behaviour in price volatility.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)219-232
Number of pages14
JournalPacific-Basin Finance Journal
Volume9
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2001

Keywords

  • Bid-ask bias
  • G14
  • Hong Kong
  • Market microstructure
  • Stock index futures
  • Volatility

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