Abstract
Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. Foresight tools, such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, are increasingly used by governments and business for long-term strategic planning and capacity building. These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 531-541 |
Number of pages | 11 |
Journal | Trends in Ecology and Evolution |
Volume | 29 |
Issue number | 9 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Sept 2014 |
Externally published | Yes |
Keywords
- Alternative futures
- Causal layered analysis
- Conservation
- Conservation policy
- Decision-making
- Environmental futures
- Futures research
- Futures studies
- Strategic thinking